Beating the bookie: A look at statistical models for prediction of football matches

In this paper we look at statistical models for predicting the outcome of football matches in a league. That is, our aim is to find a statistical model which, based on the game-history so far in a season, can predict the outcome of next round’s matches. Many such models exist, but we are not aware of a thorough comparison of the models’ merits as betting models. In this paper we look at some classical models, extract their key ingredients, and use those as a basis to propose a new model. The different models are compared by simulating bets being made on matches in the English Premier League.